wnba power ratings & championship odds
Team Elo (margin-of-victory) walked forward through the 2026 games played → mid-season conditioned state (real wins-to-date locked in) → remaining schedule Bernoulli-simulated with per-team rating noise. Single 15-team league, top-8 playoffs, no conferences. Calibrated 90% intervals. Championship odds via 30,000-path nested Monte-Carlo.
| # | team | power | W–L | proj wins | wins · 90% CI | P(POs) | P(top-4) | P(#1) | P(champ) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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power = team Elo (1500 = avg)
W–L = record to date
proj wins = mean simulated final wins
band = 90% CI