wnba projections

resolve wnba

2026 season projections — 223 players, 15-team win totals, 5 rookie + 5 veteran archetypes. Ridge per stat with weighted prior. W_BOX_v1 ★ SHIP_CLEAN 5/5 gates.

sections

players teams advanced live boxes

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

WNBA built one batch at a time — impact metrics, player archetypes, aging curves, defensive measures — each one locked against pass/fail gates before any fitting. The Auto Value Index fuses the six that survived into a single 0–100 player score, weighted by how stable each input is.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.

how the projections have held up

85%

of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly

29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171

World Cup ranked-probability score

tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%

hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls

beat the closing market