wnba projections

resolve wnba

2026 season projections — 223 players, 15-team win totals, 5 rookie + 5 veteran archetypes. Ridge per stat with weighted prior. W_BOX_v1 ★ SHIP_CLEAN 5/5 gates.

the ways in

how the model has held up, across the site

85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market

These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.

what has changed

release notes

2026-06-27

release notes

v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.

2026-06-27

methodology writeups

WNBA built one batch at a time — impact metrics, player archetypes, aging curves, defensive measures — each one locked against pass/fail gates before any fitting. The Auto Value Index fuses the six that survived into a single 0–100 player score, weighted by how stable each input is.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.