Per-Player Projections — 2026
Per-game box-score projections per WNBA player (MIN/PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TOV/3PM/FG/FT). Methodology: Ridge regression per stat with weighted prior anchoring projections to prior-season performance, trained on 12 seasons of substrate. A'ja Wilson 24.0 PTS / Bueckers 18.5 (rookie) / Olivia Miles 17.9 (rookie) / Reese 12.1 REB / Caitlin Clark 7.6 AST.
Per-Game Projections
2026 season · sorted by PTSMethodology
ridge per stat · weighted priorInputs: 5-feature substrate per stat per player — short-window rolling rate, long-window rolling rate, season-to-date mean, home indicator, opponent-allowed roll. Ridge alpha=1.0 fit per stat across positions; n=12 WNBA seasons, 46,784 player-games, 549 unique players.
Coverage: 223 players with sufficient 2024-25 sample. Rookies (Bueckers, Olivia Miles, Citron, Jackson) projected from W_ROOKIE_ARCH archetype centroids — see draft page for rookie archetypes once wired.
Sanity checks pass: A'ja Wilson 24.0 PTS (#1), Bueckers 18.5 (rookie #1), Olivia Miles 17.9 (rookie #2), Reese 12.1 REB (elite-big cluster ✓), Caitlin Clark 7.6 AST (PG cluster ✓).
v2 roadmap (banked): PSI/ADI advanced metrics layer (PBP fetcher landing), rookie overlay (NCAAW→WNBA transfer operator), injury filter, per-projection CI from Ridge variance.